#6 - Bond Bubble --> Pop !

#6 - Bond Bubble to Burst

I am clearly not alone in thinking that rates must rise ... soon.  I do, however, expect a more dramatic decline that the common expectation.  It seems to me that most forecasters believe that "it is different this time" and that the rise in rates can be carefully managed with minimal disruption.

Admittedly, not everyone think that: there are plenty of gloomy predictions of a messy unwind in the bond markets.  I would side with the most gloomy of those forecasts.

Essentially, echoing my concerns about central banks, I think it will be hard to keep controlling the bond markets and that at some point there will be a precipice moment.



Call - Major bond markets to sell off sharply
Prediction - US10 Year > 3%
Trade - Sell US10 or US30 or Bunds, Gilts etc
Conviction - High
Feasibility - High