#1 - BitCoin Crash
Clearly, given the provenance of the blog, my call for a collapse in the value of BTC has to be the first pick. My conviction is very high on this outlook.
Of course, the value had already fallen dramatically in 2014 - to around $250, say. Of course it would have been nice to have established a short at $1,000, although it may be no bad thing to wait to sell until the down-draft is clearly visible.
In any case, since I think the real target is $0, that is simply 100% down from any entry level.
Of course, even assuming I am correct, it is reasonable to expect it will be a very uneven path from $250 to $0. We can anticipate fierce rallies even if a bear trend is firmly underway.
The other thing on my mind is ... what would be the catalyst for a really major price crash ? That might come from another scandal or a killer blow from regulation, or some kind of dramatic undermining of the principles of the blockchain. I would think it's at least equally likely to simply be a terminal decline that sets in and then becomes self-fulfilling.
In any case, I want to make clear predictions that I can refer back to at the end of 2015.
I expect to see BTC below $50 this year, on its way to $0. An 80% fall seems a bold enough call for now (for a 1 year view), even though I will certainly be expecting a further 100% decline once the level breaks $50.
I do intend to put this trading view into practice. As I mentioned in the first blog post, I'm very interested in the facility to position BitCoin on a financial spread-betting basis.
Call - BitCoin to crash in value vs USD in 2015
Prediction - BitCoin price to fall to US$50
Trade - short BitCoin on a spread-bet basis
Conviction - High
Feasibility - High
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