#5 - Prime central London property bubble to burst
I accept the case for property (indeed, for real assets in general) to some degree. The same reasons that offer support for equities are valid for real estate.
I also can see the point about limited supply, and in the case of London I am very happy to go along with the case for the unique appeal of London. I am not sure this view holds on a centuries-long perspective, and I do have qualms about leasehold ownership despite apparently being in a minority of one on this point.
But I am simply not comfortable with the rate of accelerated price growth that we have experienced, and I can't share the 1-way thinking that prevails. Admittedly, I have been notably under-invested for a long, long time and I can justifiably be criticised for simply "talking my book".
Even so, I can't leave this one out of my list. In terms of timing, I do think there is over-supply in the prime market which at the very least must take some time to absorb, and that must surely be facilitated by some price weakness. Even prime central London can't defy all commercial logic all the time.
Call - Prime Central London property to fall in 2015
Prediction - Prices down 15%
Trade - problematic: no clear way to set up the short
Conviction - Medium
Feasibility - Low
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