#9 - Russia Default
When the pressure started to ratchet up on Russia during 2104 -- Oil, sanctions, conflict risk etc. I was surprised at how resilient the markets were.
Then - in December - the Rouble cracked and I fully expected that move to intensify into a 1998-style crisis. Somehow, the momentum was halted but my view is that this was a temporary reprieve.
I would expect to see renewed pressure on Russia show up in the currency, bonds, equities and the sovereign rating. I also expect real difficulties for the nearby states.
Call - Russian crisis
Prediction - Russia downgrade below Investment Grade; 2028 12.75% Eurobond below par; Rouble to fall to $=RUB100
Trade -Sell Rouble vs USD
Conviction - High
Feasibility - High
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