#8 - Euro Crisis to Re-emerge
In the previous 2011 iteration of the Euro crisis, I firmly believed there would be at least one Euro exit. I did not think it was possible for a solution to be found. I underestimated the political will to save the Euro. I was clearly wrong.
This year, although I cannot point to a specific catalyst, I do expect the problem to re-emerge and I will continue to expect an exit or a breakup of some kind. It is just a matter of time in my view, and I'll make the bold call that it could happen in 2015.
Again, I don't really accept that political will and "all it takes" devices are ultimately enough to make the Euro work.
Call - Euro Crisis
Prediction - GREXIT, with severe pressure on Italy etc and European banks
Trade - Sell Italy (e.g.) although best target is hard to pick
Conviction - Medium
Feasibility - Medium
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